Friday, October 31, 2014

Steelers Game 9 Preview - vs. Baltimore Ravens

After a significant win against a really good Colts team it is Ravens week. Throw out all the stats and all the stuff that has happened before this point because in rivalry games that stuff doesn't matter.

Yea right, that stuff matters.

The Ravens are a pretty up and down team, kinda like the Steelers. Overall I think the Ravens are a better football team but if the Steelers come out and play like they did against the Colts then I think the Steelers win this game. If the Steelers play like they did against the Ravens earlier in the season than the Ravens will have their way,

Joe Flacco didn't get touched in the first outing and that killed the Steelers. Literally no defensive player touched Flacco unless you could the post-game handshakes. To say the Steelers got after Andrew Luck would be a vast understatement and if the Steelers can do that to Flacco he will get rattled and throw picks. That would be fun.

Since stats do still matter, lets take a look at the Ravens.

Here are the numbers for the Baltimore offense:

The Baltimore offense ranks seventh in the league with an overall DVOA of 11.3% that includes a passing game that is ranked fifth in the league (35.9% DVOA) while the rushing game ranks 16th (-5.6% DVOA)

Passing

Joe Flacco
Completions: 173
Attempts: 279
Completion %: 62%
Yards: 2,049
YPA: 7.3
TD: 14
INT: 7
DVOA: 14.5% (8th)
DYAR: 480 (8th)
QBR: 67.6 (11)
First matchup (9/11): 21-29, 166 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Rushing

Justin Forsett
Attempts: 104
Yards: 571
Average: 5.5
Touchdowns: 4
DVOA: 7.7% (12th)
DYAR: 72 (10th)
Success Rate: 47% (20th)
First matchup (9/11): 8 carries, 56 yards, 4 receptions, 16 yards

Lorenzo Taliaferro
Attempts: 51
Yards: 226
Average: 4.4
Touchdowns: 4
DVOA: 1.6%
DYAR: 24

Receiving

Steve Smith
Receptions: 41
Targets: 68
Yards: 675
Average: 16.5
Touchdowns: 4
DVOA: 11.5% (21st)
DYAR: 135 (15th)
Catch Rate: 59%
First matchup (9/11): 6 receptions, 71 yards

Torrey Smith
Receptions: 18
Targets: 42
Yards: 308
Average: 17.1
Touchdowns: 4
DVOA: 27.4% (8th)
DYAR: 146 (12th)
Catch Rate: 44% (woof)
Note: Has seven defensive pass interference calls on passes to him

Owen Daniels
Receptions: 27
Targets: 37
Yards: 275
Average: 10.2
Touchdowns: 3
DVOA: 15.2% (11th among TE)
DYAR: 54 (13th among TE)
Catch Rate: 75%
First matchup (9/11): 5 receptions, 28 yards, 2 TD

Offensive Line
Adjusted Line Yards: 4.45 (5th)
Power Success: 54% (27th)
Stuffed %: 20% (23rd)

Rushing Frequency:
Left End: 6% (4.64 ALY, 8th)
Left Tackle: 16% (4.43 ALY, 4th)
Middle/Guard: 50% (3.94 ALY, 24th)
Right Tackle: 23% (5.49 ALY, 2nd)
Right End: 5% (4.57 ALY, 7th)

Here is a look at the Ravens Defense. They rank 6th overall in terms of DVOA at -10.7% while they rank 7th in pass defense (-6.5%) and 10th in rushing defense (-16.4%).

Here are some of the statistical leaders for the defense:

C.J. Mosley
Total Tackles: 76
Solo Tackles: 49
Sacks: 0.0
Passes Defended: 6
Interceptions: 2

Daryl Smith
Total Tackles: 70
Solo Tackles: 38
Sacks: 1.0
Passes Defended: 3
Interceptions: 0

Terrell Suggs
Total Tackles: 23
Solo Tackles: 12
Sacks: 3.5
Passes Defended: 0
Interceptions: 0

Elvis Dumervil
Total Tackles: 15
Solo Tackles: 10
Sacks: 7.0
Passes Defended: 0
Interceptions: 0

Pernell McPhee
Total Tackles: 10
Solo Tackles: 5
Sacks: 4.0
Passes Defended: 2
Interceptions: 0

Here is a look at the Ravens special teams

Kicking

Justin Tucker
Field Goals Attempted: 18
Field Goals Made: 21
Long: 53
1-19: 0-0
20-29: 5-5
30-39: 7-7
40-49: 3-3
50+: 3-6
Extra Points: 21-21

Punting

Sam Koch
Punts: 22
Yards: 1,038
Average: 47.2
Long: 69
Inside 20: 10
Touchback: 2
Fair Catch: 5
Average Return Against: 8.4

Returns

Jacoby Jones
Kick Return Attempts: 15
Kick Return Yards: 419
Kick Return Average: 27.9
Kick Return Long: 58
Kick Return TD: 0
Punt Return Attempts: 13
Punt Return Yards: 107
Punt Return Average: 8.2
Punt Return Long: 33
Punt Return TD: 0

Prediction: Steelers 23, Ravens 20

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